The HESPERIA project will provide alerts for large SEP events. Several forecasting approaches will be tested, improved and validated during the course of the project.
Using real-time data, two SEP predictors will be developed using two different approaches and target energies:
The first approach is the implementation/adaptation and evaluation of a real-time prediction of 30-50 MeV SEP events by the RELeASE scheme using both relativistic as well as near-relativistic electron data from SOHO/EPHIN and ACE/EPAM. The final goal is to infer the maximum proton intensity and onset close to Earth.
The aim of the second real-time tool is to do the implementation and evaluation of a real-time predictor of SEP events with E >500 MeV protons by using the UMASEP scheme. For the case of real-time solar data Soft X-rays, Hard X-rays and radio data will be explored whereas for real-time near-Earth radiation data, the use of neutron monitors and GOES/HEPAD data will be explored.
Furthermore, for those forecasting approaches that depend on input data that are not available in real-time, the HESPERIA team will develop two post-event prediction tools using two different approaches and data sources.
The forecasting tools will be validated in terms of POD, FAR and warning time.